CARL DIGGLER’S SUPER TWOSDAY: My Predictions & Trademark Southern Racial Voter Theory

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It’s time for a threequel. You loved The Dig when he correctly predicted every Democratic race on Super Tuesday, including the all-important American Samoa caucus. And you loved him when he called 8 of the 9 Super Saturday weekend races, including Ted Cruz’s come-from-behind victory in Kansas and Marco Rubio’s Puerto Rico win. Well it’s time for this cycle’s King Of Forecasting to once again defend his crown in the six hot races we pundits have Christened Super Twosday!

Call me Carlnac the Dignificent, because I foresee the following winners in your future:

Diggler_SuperTWOsday (1)

Here’s a rundown of today’s races, starting with the most important prize of the night:

Hawaii Republican caucus (19 delegates)

Aloha, Digheads on the Big Island, mainland, and “the little toes” (lesser islands)! I’ll admit that this is the single hardest contest I’ve had to call. For one, there’s a precious small amount of Republicans in The Hello/Goodbye Double Meaning Word State, with only around 10,000 voting in the last Republican Caucus. Plus Hawaii Republicans are a motley group, consisting of business conservatives, evangelicals, Mormons, and military retirees. A weaker pundit would throw his hands in the air and cry “I don’t know!” (Of course, this is what Nate Silver has done.) But like the songbird sings and the bee urinates honey, Carl Diggler predicts elections. So it is with butterflies in my stomach and a little War Vomit on my shirt that I predict Ted Cruz will win the Hawaii caucus.

My gut arrives at Cruz through the process of elimination. Vagrant John Kasich, a natural fit for the moderate Republicans here, has stayed away out of fear of Hawaii’s policy of putting homeless people on one-way planes to the mainland. Marco Rubio, the other establishment choice, has continued to implode since Super Tuesday, with voters across the country being as turned off by the Floridian’s brash, alpha nature as they were by Jeb Bush. In fact, I spoke with Chad Blair, star political writer at Honolulu Civil Beat, who told me that the Rubio has deployed his 500 megaton nuclear weapon to Hawaii: superstar surrogate Rick Santorum. Such a desperate move is the surest sign of a campaign in disarray. As for Trump, the lack of white racial resentment amongst Hawaiians limits his chances.

Sources tell me that Cruz is the only candidate here with a strong ground game, one comprised of devoted, strident fanatics who are every bit as unlikable as the mutated Senator. Hawaii for Cruz’s aggressive door-knocking and lengthy blog posts featuring random words and sentences bolded or in all-caps will hector enough supporters to make it to the caucus within the 2-hour polling window.

Thanks again to Chad Blair — or should I say, mahalo — for giving me the vital field report I needed to make this tough call. I feel blessed to have friends and sources in every state and territory. As I like to say, Dig Pride Worldwide!

Michigan primary (59 Republican delegates, 130 Democratic delegates)

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are on track to win their respective primaries here. No surprises there — they’ve been leading in every poll for months. The real scoop is the come-from-behind underdog story of John Kasich, the plucky drifter who won the hearts of frugal New Hampshirites and is in serious contention for 2nd place in Michigan tonight. The happy-go-lucky derelict has spent the past week wandering around the Great Lake State, whose copious woodlands and cutbacks in police services have provided ample space for him and key staffers (namely Kasich’s half-brother and a raving bearded man known as “Lucky” Al) to camp out, keep to themselves, and not be hassled for perfectly legal activities. Moreover, Michigan’s generous 10 cent bottle deposit has filled the itinerant governor’s campaign coffers with much-needed cash. With an incompetent Marco Rubio failing everywhere and about to drop out, expect establishment-minded GOP voters to give Kasich another look — and not like the dirty ones the governor gets from respectable homeowners.

Mississippi primary (40 Republican delegates, 36 Democratic delegates)

All knives cut both ways. To wit, Mississippi: the trademark Carl Diggler Southern Racial Voter Theory holds that angry white voters who prioritize racism and rage have a genetic predisposition to support Donald Trump due to the large Resentment Cortex and Anger Cerebellum found in the Scots-Irish skull. However, these voters will largely be absent from the Democratic contest, meaning that black voters will once again hand Bernie Sanders a big fat loss. Better luck next time, Bernie. Oh wait, you may not be around for the next contest. Hahahahaha!

Idaho Republican primary (32 delegates)

While one poll put Trump ahead here, I see through the horseflop: Idahoans are less energized by racism than they are by black helicopter paranoia, the gold standard, and candidates who would take their side during an armed standoff with the ATF. Gimme Cruz the Deformed Spud in the Potato State!

Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at carl@cafe.com or Tweet to @carl_diggler.

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