On the heels of a dramatic Super Threesday, an explosive Super Twosday, and a cinematic Super Tuesday (Original), we have a fourth iteration of an old classic. This one isn’t as big as the last three, with only Utah, Arizona, and Idaho up for grabs, but it’s a big day nonetheless. We’ll likely see reruns of old narratives (Ted Cruz’s appeal to Mormon voters, Trump’s solid lock on racism voters, Sanders’ successes in rural areas dominated by isolated and angsty single men), but today also serves as a crucible for the frontrunners. Can Hillary drive a stake through the heart of an economic vampire before she finds herself in a shootout with FBI Email Division commandos? Can Cruz rise to the occasion and pass the 50 percent threshold in Utah to trigger its winner-take-all delegate allocation? Will Bernie Bros finally snap and kill a woman mid-caucus? We’re about to find out.
Utah caucuses (40 Republican delegates, 33 Democratic delegates)
This is a surefire Cruz win. Utah voters are big on religious liberties, and despise Donald Trump for saying that the planet Kolob is “pathetic.” But it comes with its own special narrative. John Kasich is campaigning in the Mormon stronghold, which is curious, since Mormons have a healthy distrust of smooth-talking drifters. Kasich’s long stories about horses and milkmen may play well in the Northeast and Ohio, but the crafty members of the Church of Latter Day Saints know when someone’s trying to sell them on something. The only reason Kasich would spend any time on a surely losing effort would be to deny Cruz a 50%+ win, forcing the delegates to be allocated proportionally and increasing chances for a brokered convention where he’d have an opportunity to steal phones, wallets, and even car keys from any number of bowtie-clad RNC operatives.
On the Democratic side, I expect descendants of people who treated women like collectable properties to continue their intellectual tradition by coming out for Bernie.
Arizona primary (58 Republican delegates, 75 Democratic delegates)
Racial resentment voters and intersectional feminist voters will find their representative candidates in Trump and Clinton respectively. Trump famously has the backing of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who is a legend among white conservatives for not merely talking about torturing minorities, but actually doing it. Arpaio has been re-elected three times by healthy majorities of white voters who would rather not have their names and faces printed in the news. These voters’ top issues are shackling pregnant inmates while they give birth (pro) and accelerating the pace of climate change to increase the suffering and heat-related injuries of inmates in Arpaio’s tent city. If anyone is grabbing the votes of these Arizonans motivated by the use of violence to enforce racial codes, it’s Donald J. Trump.
The Democratic electorate in Arizona is less white, which is bad news for Bernie. Sure, minority voters have flirted with Bernie up north, but here on the border, the Latino community is more grateful for Hillary bravely standing up and saying Basta! to Donald Trump. You see, Hillary has a little something called “El Respeto,” as this press release on her website explains. Plus, through careful marketing of the viral “Hillary is Abuela” meme, the Clinton camp expects to earn the goodwill of voters currently enamoured by the lonely “Pawpaw” meme. You could say that Arizona made 75 hamburgers (delegates) for both grandkids (the candidates), and Hillary Clinton is sure as heck going to show up to eat them (receive a majority of delegates allocated proportionally).
Idaho Democratic caucus (23 delegates)
The Republicans already had their fun in the Potato State on Super Twosday, so now it’s the Democrats’ turn. Unlike Idaho Republicans, who are mostly motivated by fear of N.W.O. black helicopters and fiat currency, Idaho Democrats fall into two categories. First, you have dwellers in rural arts towns like Sandpoint and the aptly-named Moscow. These voters are aging hippies and their progeny who eke out a living selling baubles like handcrafted hemp-based dreamcatchers. While some of them identify with Hillary, the majority of these shoeless caucus-goers feel Bernie is speaking their language.
The second kind of Idaho Democrat consists of angry loners. These are usually city-dwelling divorcees who suffered a mid-life crisis, packed a suitcase, and left their families and careers behind to live in a shack in the woods far away from society. These broken husks of men spend their days cleaning guns, mourning their loss of youth, and quietly resenting mainstream America and the women who have wronged them. They also carry with them a loathing of the materialistic capitalist society that they left behind. If you read my columns on the regular you’ll know that anti-capitalist plus anti-women equals Bernie supporter. With Bernie crushing among both art town hippies and resentful failures, he’s the favorite to win Idaho today.
Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org or Tweet to @carl_diggler.
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