New Hampshire is the first in the nation, and my heart. Unfortunately, my election cake tradition followed by a swim at Equinox landed me in the hospital. Thankfully Blackberrys come with keypads and Cedars-Sinai has outlet plugs. Since I predicted the Iowa caucuses with perfect accuracy, I thought I’d go for a repeat. Here’s what I think will be the outcome of the Granite State race, delivered in between morphine injections from the Nurse Ratchet character who has no pity on a journalist whose eyes simply got too large for his stomach.
DEMOCRATS: BERNIE OVER HILLARY
This one shouldn’t be too hard to call. Bernie will beat Hillary by a low double digit margin here in New Hampshire for many reasons. For one, the manic, gun toting societal outcasts of New Hampshire prefer a guy who speaks to their innate anger. For two, while harassment may fail you in Iowa, it will bolster you in New Hampshire. This state is practically built on the idea of filming police officers and pestering them about maritime law, so they see the harassment Sanders’ campaign is built on as inherently patriotic.
This is Sanders’ last taste of victory before South Carolina, where he will be disemboweled by Bill Clinton’s rousing dry-mouthed moderation en route to an eventual Wesley Clark/John Kerry nomination at the convention. (Note: If Hillary somehow gets the margin down to single digits tonight, look for her to claim “victory” for only losing by mere percentage points to an elderly infant in a state she won last time!)
REPUBLICANS: TRUMP WINS, KASICH SECOND, RUBIO & BUSH BATTLE FOR 3RD, CRUZ FIFTH
The Donald has led in every New Hampshire poll since August, and he’s certain to carry the night. I doubt he’ll win with the 15-point lead the Real Clear Politics polling average shows him having, since many of his supporters will be unable to get out of their bail hearings and armed stand-offs with federal park rangers in order to go vote. But the Granite State has more than enough Trump fans to make up for the attrition he suffered in Iowa and give the tell-it-like-it-is billionaire his first primary win.
I toured New Hampshire with John Kasich last month, and there I saw that this plucky vagrant’s momentum is for real. In the Relatability Primary, Kasich wins by a landslide, as this drifter’s copious tales of being thrown out of department stores and gas stations by security guards who had it out for him are truly connecting with rank-and-file Republican voters who feel like they’re being thrown out of Obama’s America. In this crowded field Kasich manages to leapfrog the pack and keep his campaign going with a huge second place finish.
Marco Rubio had a tough past few days, and I suspect New Hampshirites have run out of patience for the telegenic young philanderer’s complete inability to deviate from his prepared script to deliver the crazy viral moments we election-watchers crave. Rubio simply plays it too safe in a state that treasures authenticity. Whether he’s droning on about how Obama is changing America or repeating the same tired line about how he’s unable to wear a condom for medical reasons, Rubio is alienating voters in the crucial final stretch to primary day. His maximum here is 17… and I don’t mean illegitimate children!!!
Jeb Bush finishes a close fourth behind Rubio, and I suspect that’s enough to keep his campaign afloat and the epic mano-e-mano showdown between him and Donald Trump alive well into Round 77.
Ted Cruz has spent the past week crisscrossing New Hampshire and alienating everyone he meets with his Deep One-like appearance. Now, Cruz might benefit from some sympathy vote after Donald Trump called him a “p*ssy” (much like how I only grow stronger and more popular when trolls enter my Twitter mentions with vulgarities like “f**k my h*le, daddy”), but I doubt it’ll be enough to overcome his sheer repulsiveness as a human being. He could get fourth, but my gut tells me it doesn’t happen.
Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina never quite took off, and they snag 6th and 7th place, respectively. I got a chance to see the final days of the Christie campaign up close in the Christiebunker last week, and all I can say is: those poor Christie Youth kids. Before that, Carly Fiorina scared the heck out of me with her proclivity for Russian dashcam videos and snuff films. These predictions aren’t new, folks. The Dig called ’em days ago.
Meanwhile, The Dig’s election team is on the ground in New Hampshire providing up-to-the-minute reports on the primary. To get their instant insights, follow cafedotcom on Snapchat.
Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org or Tweet to @carl_diggler.