Great athletes and performers have an adage: “Act like you’ve been here before.”
It’s not shocking that after my correct Kentucky and Oregon forecasts last night, I have called 22 primaries in a row. I’ve been doing this for my entire adult life. Even before that, I was calling margins in middle school class elections, county school board races, appellate court rulings about the admissibility of prediction records in family court cases, just about anything with frightening accuracy. It just comes naturally to The Dig Man.
That said, the victory is just that much sweeter after a nail biter in Kentucky. The game is that much sweeter when you got some skin in it! With that said, let’s break down what happened, and how my combination of gut, instinct, and unique demographic theories won the night:
Hillary’s Louisville Slugfest
I knew this one would be very close, but didn’t think it would be within 1 percent. I accounted for the physically filthy Eastern Kentucky coal miners to avoid Hillary because of her perceived desire to turn coal mines into minority-owned graphic design firms and their natural proclivity towards Jewish East Coasters. I figured that well-to-do Northern Kentuckians would go for the candidate who isn’t going to tax them into the poorhouse. And with the HRC campaign’s late efforts in the major urban center, I knew that Louisville would come out big for the former Secretary of State.
That said, Western Kentucky showed up slightly bigger for Bernie than I thought they would. This could be accounted for by a complacency among Hillary voters, or more likely a corrupt deal between the Sanders campaign and sheriffs to ignore moonshine trafficking offenses so these toothless harassers could vote for their hideous commander.
Still, Dig won the day. In my bold Kentucky call I beat respected fellow forecasters Tyler Pedigo, Nate Cohn, and Larry Sabato, who all predicted a Bernie win. They surely deserve points for having the bravery to make one call and stick with it. The only true loser was the coward Nate Silver, who published a dithering, mealy-mouthed non-prediction, hedging his bets as usual by saying “Hillary might be strong but ehh Bernie might also do well here, look for both candidates to win votes tonight.” In FiveThirtyEight-speak, that means “heads I win, tails you lose.” No man so craven deserves to call himself a pundit.
Bernie’s Irrelevant Oregon Win
Although Bernie won the closed primary in Oregon by a healthy margin as I predicted, this should not be treated as real victory for him. You see, Oregon conducts all-mail elections where every eligible voter is mailed a ballot a couple weeks in advance to fill in and return postage-paid at their leisure. In other words, Oregonians are voting on Easy Mode. These coddled casual voters get to lounge around all day without a care in the world, making no greater effort to cast a ballot than walking to the end of their driveway. Real voters, the lunchpail 9-to-5 types, relish the chance to take 1-2 hours out of a random weekday to wait in line at a precinct or caucus site. Voting is a communal activity, one that involves talking to old people and wearing a sticker. Mail-in balloting is nothing more than flashy Millennial-type slacktivism for shut-ins too afraid to leave their apartments to actually engage in Democracy. What’s next? Voting by Facebook “likes?” Snapchatting your vote? Webcamming your vote on LiveJasmine? That Bernie considers Oregon some sort of “victory” shows how dangerously deluded and probably senile his campaign has become.
Trump Declares War On The Fact Friends
Donald Trump started his campaign as a hilarious and quirky breath of fresh air, providing us pundits with viral LOL moments like doing the Drake dance on SNL and calling for ethnic cleansing. But then things turned ugly. Trump started attacking innocent journalists at his rallies, whipping his rabid followers into a hateful and stupid frenzy against us — respected members of the media class. He mocked a disabled writer. His campaign manager assaulted a female reporter. Trump himself even singled me out for abuse amidst thousands of jeering and violent Trump-heads, forcing me to feign cowardly submission and triggering my congenital appendix and inner ear disorders.
Even after clinching the nomination, Trump’s savage assaults on innocent journalists have not abated. Last night, he lashed out at another member of the Fact Friends:
Michael Barbaro, the author of the now discredited @nytimes hit piece on me with women, has in past tweeted badly about me. He should resign
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 18, 2016
This is one fight you will wish you never picked, Mr. Trump. Stronger men than you have fallen in our path. We are the gatekeepers. We pick the winners and losers of the week. We are the Fact Friends. Remember our name, for it will be etched upon your campaign’s obituary, which we will also write.
Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org or Tweet to @carl_diggler. And check out his predictions at SixThirtyEight.
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