Gentlemen, start your punditry! Because here in Indiana, famed heartland of automobile racing sport, the Presidential race is about to kick it into 6th gear! The ignition gun has been fired, and the Dig is about to cruise control past numbers failure Nate Silver by calling both primaries today more accurately than he could hope to dream of.
Last week I called all ten primaries perfectly, while FiveThirtyEight only predicted 8. Today I’ll improve my stellar forecasting record by once again trouncing the calculator cowards in our lopsided duel of gut prediction wisdom.
So, with that said, let’s start with the Republicans.
Indiana Republican primary (57 delegates): Donald Trump
The Stop Trump movement, made up of influential conservative thinkers like Kermit von Habsburg and Amb. Gristle Septum IV, has put all its chips down on Indiana. This should be an easy layup for Ted Cruz, who benefits from Indiana’s large evangelical population and rival John Kasich’s agreement to not step foot in the state (partially because of an electoral alliance, partially because the Ohio Governor is still wanted for a string of lawn equipment thefts at several Menards stores).
Cruz also has the Club for Growth pouring money into the race on his behalf as well as Carly Fiorina, his terrifying, shock video-loving running mate, crisscrossing the state to whip little-piggie voters into supporting the ticket. But even with all that going for him, the melting slime creature from Texas is going to lose.
Trump has two overwhelming advantages in Indiana. First, the state’s long history of supporting the KKK bodes well for the Donald (at one point, the state’s Governor, plus half the members of the legislature, were Klansmen). These white-hooded activists are fired up, and they’ll help Trump close the enthusiasm gap against Cruz’s extremely motivated and extremely spectrum volunteers.
Second, Trump has the endorsement of legendary college basketball coach Bobby Knight. Knight’s famous temper — he physically beat his players, attacked fans, and once threw a chair onto the court after an argument with a referee — has long appealed to the emotionally unstable folks who make up most of the Indiana Republican electorate.
Bottom line? Trump understands and appeals to these angry hotheads. By contrast, Cruz can’t get his foot in the door with his “ah, by your fallacious logic, sir” style of campaigning. In one viral moment, a voter screamed in Cruz’s face, calling him a liar and a ominously saying “Indiana don’t want you.” Cruz’s measured rebuttals of “I see it’s our old friend ad hominem” and “you just proved my point by employing the classic Honest Fisherman fallacy” were drowned out by screams of “Lyin’ Ted” and “cuck loser.” He’ll be hearing more of the same when the votes are counted tonight.
Indiana Democratic primary (83 delegates): Bernie Sanders
This is going to be a close one, no matter who takes it. The aforementioned Klan history of Indiana, as well as its de-industrialized hellholes such as Gary, bode well for Sanders. However, he’s carrying the stench of a loser after a drubbing out in the Northeast — and it’s even stronger than his old man scent.
On the other side, Hillary Clinton’s campaign has curtailed spending in primaries, either to pivot to the general election or to save up for a massive legal defense slush fund. Sanders has made his odious presence known in the Hoosier state, and I think his coalition of racists, self-hating young women, and “incels” may just propel him to a very narrow victory.
Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org or Tweet to @carl_diggler.
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