How This Veteran Journalist (Me) Destroyed Math Nerd Nate Silver in Predicting Iowa

How This Veteran Journalist (Me) Destroyed Math Nerd Nate Silver in Predicting Iowa

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Forgive me if I take a victory lap, Digheads, but yesterday I went against the conventional wisdom and gave my predictions for the Iowa Caucus. At the time I took a lot of heat for my calls (Clinton over Bernie, Cruz over Trump over Rubio) from both other journalists and Bernie-funded internet trolls, but it turned out the good folks in Iowa had my back. So I thought I’d start today’s article with a little report card, à la my debate recaps, on the folks who tried to call the Iowa caucus. Here are the winners and losers of the night:

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Veteran Political Journalist Carl Diggler

Gut

Instinct

Experience

Swagger

Anti-Troll Spray

Results

FINAL GRADE

A+

A

A+

A+

A+

A+

A+

Now this is a writer who carries himself with the brio of someone who has covered politics both inside and outside the Beltway for 30 years. Here’s someone who looked at the vaunted Des Moines Register poll showing Trump ahead, yawned, printed it out, crumpled it up, and threw it in the dustbin of history. This is a veteran writer and ex-POW who went with his gut and saw it pay off in spades. It just goes to show there’s no substitute for experience.

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Nebbish Math Nerd Nate Silver

Didn’t Speak Until Age 5

Standard Deviation On Losing Virginity

Regression Models On Digimon- Related Bullying

Pantsing Vulnerability

Statistics Is A Fake Science

You Have Never Been Better Than Me

FINAL GRADE

F

F

D-

A

A

A

D-

Well, well, well. Sorry, Natey Boy, looks like no equation known to man can equal gut instinct. I’m sorry, though, really. Your endless spreadsheets, mathematical models, and sloping brow that betrays an abnormal robot-like brain undoubtedly brought on due to toxin exposure during pregnancy didn’t come close to old Carl’s flawless predictions. If it’s any consolation, the next round is on me. Oh, that’s right. You don’t get out much. Well, I’ll be sure to toss you some Xbox Live credits, recordings of trains, or whatever it is you enjoy. Remember Nate, no one remembers second place. Good thing you weren’t even close to that silver medal.

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Basement-Dwelling Misogynist Bernie Bro Trolls

RedTube And Chill

Women Owe Us Sex

Smile Sweetie

Harming Their Candidate

I Wanna Recount

Wahhhhh

FINAL GRADE

F

F

A

F

F

F

F

Well, looks like it just wasn’t enough for a clear win. Maybe they couldn’t physically make it to the caucuses because they were physically ill and too incompetent to have health insurance. Maybe gas was too expensive given their hilarious student loan debt. No matter which one of their myriad failures accounted for the loss of their harasser-in-chief, they just couldn’t get it done. Undecided Iowans no doubt were combing my mentions and noticing the abuse hurled my way. Even these Fox Racing-clad simpletons know the truth: a candidate whose supporters are rude to respected journalists online is unfit to lead.

With the winners and losers out of the way, here’s a round-up of the biggest news from the caucus:

MIKE HUCKABEE DROPS OUT

Hyuck Hyuck, well the only campaign suspension I know about is when I’m out lookin’ for some suspenders hyuck hyuck! Darn right! A caucus? That sounds like my kinfolk with a hairlip Jezzekiah talkin’ about a car crash! Hyuck hyuck! Iowa? I owe you, for how darn nice y’all been hyuck hyuck! HYUCK HYUCK WELL A STUDENT LOAN AIN’T THAT WHEN YOU BORROW TEN BUCKS FROM YOUR PAW TO BUY SOME BEER HYUCK HYUCK HYUCK! 99 PERCENT? WELL I AIN’T NEVER TAKEN NO FANCY MATH CLASSES HYUCK HYUCK! HOMOSEXUALS WILL DESTROY US.

MARTIN O’MALLEY DROPS OUT

O’Malley was a shoe-in to win the nomination after Hillary went to prison for the Constitutional crime of e-mailing Sid Blumenthal (about to happen any day now, my sources tell me). But it seems the famously perfectionistic candidate couldn’t handle winning 0 delegates in the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Last week I visited Martin O’Malley in his North Baltimore home, and there I met a gaslighting control freak who frightened family members and battle-scarred journalists alike. I was impressed by his power, but knew his vulnerability laid in how he couldn’t stand not getting his way. With O’Malley vanquished, I have to say: I didn’t spill that drink. I am not clumsy, Martin. I was only standing up for myself. You see, I’m a journalist. And a father. But a journalist first. Yes, I make mistakes. Sure, I don’t not drop every glass. But I have rights, Governor. And if you try to stop me from seeing my son, I will scream so loud the Maryland Supreme Court will hear. Good day, sir.

THE ROAD TO NEW HAMPSHIRE

Marco Rubio won a convincing third place tonight, which, combined with his bold renunciation of his Cuban heritage, gives him momentum going into the New Hampshire primary next week.

Donald Trump built his campaign on demagoguery, bluster, and attacks on innocent veteran journalists who, under threat of mob violence and suffering from congenital ear disorders, were tortured into betraying their colleagues. Now that he’s officially a loser, his “yuge” lead in New Hampshire is bound to evaporate, giving an opening to second-tier candidates like Rubio, happy-go-lucky vagrant John Kasich, snuff film fanatic Carly Fiorina, and the besieged Reich chancellor of the Garden State, sports radio caller Chris Christie.

Dr. Ben Carson, after a disappointing fourth place (which I predicted, BTW), flew to Florida to change his clothes, presumably into ceremonial temple robes. This veteran journalist wonders why the reputed reincarnation of the blind Old Testament prophet Eli thought to leave the Midwest so suddenly. What does he know? Are people in danger? Should someone tell Frank Luntz? That’s just the excitement of the primaries!

Bernie Sanders, who directed his supporters to scream slurs at the women and persons of color counting votes until they relented to their caucus harassment and awarded him delegates, will fight on, unfortunately. It’s clear that Hillary Clinton, who must devote her campaign resources to fighting treason charges, doesn’t have the infrastructure to stop him. At this point Democrats need to start thinking about whom they’re going to recruit to be their candidate. My gut tells me: former five-star NATO General Wesley Clark. You read it here first.

Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at carl@cafe.com or Tweet to @carl_diggler.