Don’t bother looking on FiveThirtyEight for Nate Silver’s predictions about today’s races. He hasn’t made any. Still smarting from my total pundit victory over him and his henchman Harry Enten, Nate seems to have thrown in the towel on forecasting this year’s primaries.
So what’s FiveThirtyEight focused on instead? Let’s take a look:
Best of luck with that, Nate!
The Dig, however, is still at it. So long as there are races to call, I’ll be building on my record-breaking prediction record, which you can see at SixThirtyEight. Follow the results in tonight’s two huge primaries to see if the Dig Man can extend his current success streak to 22 for 22.
Oregon Democratic primary (61 delegates): Bernie Sanders
The closed primary system and low primary registration numbers in Oregon certainly favor Clinton, but Bernie’s huge win with the grunge and riot grrrl-type entitled Millennials of Washington state bodes well for him in neighboring Oregon, where voters are seeking to “put a Bern on it!”
As the ripped-from-the-headlines mockumentary “Portlandia” teaches us, Oregon is dominated by extremely white and sarcastic hipsters, a demographic that would ironically support an elderly shouting Socialist, much as they would a rapping granny or a Six Flags mascot. Thanks to Oregon’s all-mail elections, Portlanders need only ride their fixie bicycles to their nearest mailbox to drop off their ballots on their way to their vegan yarn shops and gluten-free gender bookstores. Their votes will count just as long as they don’t spill PBR on them!
I pray that one day these extended adolescents will grow up and start living like adults, driving mature vehicles like trucks and drinking sophisticated beers like Michelob. When that day comes they’ll be saying “I was into serious entitlement reform before it was cool.”
Kentucky Democratic primary (55 delegates): Hillary Clinton
There was a lawman ‘round these parts. Wore a cowboy hat. Legend is, he gunned a man down because he didn’t leave town ‘fore sundown. His name? Raylan Givens — but also Hillary Clinton.
Raylan Givens was, of course, the hero of the Kentucky-centric novel “Fire in the Hole” and the hit TV show “Justified.” He had a complex moral code, a serious-yet-wisecracking manner, and wasn’t afraid to kill someone if it seemed like the right thing to do.
He was, in other words, exactly like Hillary Clinton.
Raylan may have ran afoul of his bosses at the Marshals Office with his loose trigger finger and hard-held beliefs, but at the end of the day, he wrapped things up before they got too crazy. Hillary, with her alleged string of killings and her email server felonies, is seen as quite the cowboy herself. But no one could ever accuse her of leaving a job unfinished.
Facing down the big villain of this season, a quirky Northerner with a penchant for harassment and a ridiculous voice, Hillary will pull some clever, Raylan-esque tricks — such as talking about how racist he is — and ultimately flatline suspect Sanders in a shoutout.
Still, it will likely be a close one. But after the dust clears, Hillary’s supervisor, Agent Debbie Wasserman Schultz, will scold her for killing another candidate who could have given up his delegates during interrogation. The modern day law-woman will just pop her a look and say “Ma’am, that shooting was justified.”
One thing’s for sure, only one of these candidates will be leaving Harlan alive!
Carl “The Dig” Diggler has covered national politics for 30 years, and is the author of “Think-ocracy: The Rise Of The Brainy Congressman”. Got a question for the Dig? E-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org or Tweet to @carl_diggler. And check out his predictions at SixThirtyEight.
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